Last month, US President Donald Trump announced a broad variety of tariffs that have all nations worried that we are close to a recession. While there are many rising signs of recession, there are many fashion and beauty trends that might predict one. From the ‘lipstick index’ to ‘longer hemlines’ or the ‘men’s underwear index’, these are all soft signals of a recession.
According to this fashion theory of recession, a recession is near when the purchase of cosmetic items like lipsticks, nail polish or mascara rises swiftly. While this theory may be true for women, it is the opposite with men. It might seem comical that the hemlines of women’s skirts or the decline in men’s underwear would have any effect on the economy. These fashion and beauty trends are all soft signals of recession rather than reliable measures.
1. Lipstick Index: When people start cutting back on big splurges to save money, a rise in cosmetic sales is seen. This rise in cosmetic sales, specifically lipsticks, was observed by Estée Lauder. There was a very simple reason behind this. In times of financial crunch, women found satisfaction in more affordable luxuries.
2. Mascara Index: Similar to the theory of the lipstick index, we have the mascara index. From this index, we get to know that the sales of mascara and other eye products increase. This rise in mascara sales was also noted recently during the COVID-19 pandemic. As everyone was wearing masks, eye makeup was what allured people.
3. Longer Hemlines: The theory behind longer hemlines indicating recession was stated by economist George Taylor in 1926. It talked about how the length of hemlines can dictate the state of our economy. While shorter hemlines indicated thriving economies, longer hemlines hinted otherwise.